Base Hit Investing

Thoughts on ROIC, Margins and Turnover; Mailbox Money and an Update on Natural Resource Partners (NRP)

"A majority of life’s errors are caused by forgetting what one is really trying to do.” - Charlie Munger

May 30 • John Huber

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February 2026

AI Fear Trade, Emotional Markets, Avoiding Value Traps, and Current Opportunities

Some thoughts on the recent emotional "AI Fear Trade" along with case studies; and comments on NRP, DOUG, PBI, oil, silver, and DIS

Feb 13 • John Huber

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January 2026

Thoughts on Market Valuations, AI, Productivity and Shortages

Plus: Tickle Me Elmo and end user demand; Why do all shortages end in gluts? And who is TSMC's customers' customers' customer?

Jan 27 • John Huber

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Lincoln Post: NFLX and Theaters, FCNCA Earnings

More Thoughts on NFLX and Theaters, Ted Sarandos comments for that business, CNK, MCS; also FCNCA earnings update, and the overemphasis on asset…

Jan 25 • John Huber

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December 2025

Contrarian Low-Cost Producer at a 15% FCF Yield + Excess Real Estate

Large margin of safety from the valuable real estate being monetized, underappreciated moat with key cost advantages, growth prospects thanks to new law…

Dec 29, 2025 • John Huber

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Oil Free Cash Flow: California and Canada vs Texas; Charlie Munger's Investment Mistake; A Producer at Half of Liquidation Value

Why California & Canadian oil production has better ROIC and more FCF than Texas; a look at one of Charlie's biggest investment mistakes (his own…

Dec 22, 2025 • John Huber

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Movie Theaters Risk and Opportunities; Netflix/WBD Deal; Is Disney Cheap?

Is the recent selloff in CNK overblown? Thoughts on the NFLX/WBD deal; MCS FCF; Thoughts on Disney and its valuation

Dec 8, 2025 • John Huber

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Understanding ROIC on Low Growth Businesses

A discussion of ROIC vs FCF yield; does ROIC matter in low growth businesses? Some current examples of high FCF yield stocks

Dec 5, 2025 • John Huber

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October 2025

Two Types of Bank Investments; Thoughts on Asset Sensitivity; FCNCA's Value

Summary of bank investment strategy (bargains and compounders); Asset sensitivity might be misunderstood; a comparison of FCNCA vs other regional banks

Oct 28, 2025 • John Huber

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September 2025

High FCF Yield Stocks; Returns from Business Results vs P/E Ratio Expansion

Examples of stocks that offer high FCF yields, where returns are earned from business results without requiring P/E expansion

Sep 15, 2025 • John Huber

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July 2025

Quiet Compounders, a Hidden Moat and an 18% FCF Yield at Pitney Bowes (PBI)

A high margin, high ROIC business with a hidden moat for 5.5 P/FCF that is buying back shares.

Jul 11, 2025 • John Huber

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June 2025

Investment Evolution or Flexible Tactics?

A look at Warren Buffett's remarkable investment flexibility and some thoughts on opportunities over the next decade; current valuations; how to avoid…

Jun 2, 2025 • John Huber

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